I Can't Breathe!

 

Pic credit: Google Images Anis Wani for The Kashmir Walla.

I Can’t Breathe

A third Corona wave is at the threshold, and this may sound as an alarmist for the panic-stricken citizens of India. The principal scientific advisor to the PM of India reiterates that it is inevitable, but the exact time of its arrival cannot be predicted though. What we do know that this wave could cross age groups putting even children at the same risk as adults. We need to mask up and prepare, and we also need to introspect, draw the lessons from the past to fix the lapses, not the narratives. At this time of chaos and confusions, it is apt to go back and try to track the rampant and reckless growth of Covid 19 virus which has unleashed its belligerence in our motherland refusing to be tamed. After the initial grip of Covid-19 outbreak and unprecedented nationwide lockdown followed by the exodus of the migrants, India saw a dwindling of positive cases.

In January 2021 India felt that it is on its path to normalcy. We saw the lowest new cases in eight months and lowest death rate in almost a year. Vaccinations had begun, hospitalizations had fallen while it appeared as if the worst was way behind us and the time to open up, bouncing back to normalcy. But at the pretext of slow pace the lethal virus was evolving and mutating. The warnings were aired by several experts voicing fears about an impending second wave of a Covid Tsunami, but the message did not reach the concerned authorities or at least they shied away from these clarion calls. The government tries to save its face from taking the responsibility stating, ‘while the wave was predicted the severity was not.’ Then in March a forum of scientific advisors set by the government of India again issued a warning that a new and more contagious variant was spreading. But both central and state governments failed to initiate any significant containment measures, instead Dr. Harsh Vardhan declared that we are in the ‘End Game’ of Covid-19 Pandemic, the real task of preparing for this devastating wave was lost in the din.

And the result turned out to be too costly for India. On March 15^th India reported 24,000 new cases and this figure increases to 53,000 on March 30^th, one lakh by April 4^th, nearly 2 lakhs by April 14^th. And despite this colossal spike in the cases two mass public events were held as per the plan. The 2021 assembly elections, five States and Union territories went to poll. While pretty much every political leader from union ministers to opposition leaders, from Chief Ministers to the Prime Minister, everyone invariably drew thousands of people to their massive rallies. While the Kumbh Mela, in Haridwar, which was attended by more than 48 lakhs devotees, clutching each other, having no masks and social distancing. Both these events, the ballot and the dip; the super spreaders, ended up being a conducive breeding ground for Covid-19 virus. In Madhya Pradesh 99 percent of Kumbh Mela returnees tested positive. The elections also had the similar outcome. In West Bengal each phase of the election saw a spike in the daily cases. They went from 812 on March 27 to 16,403 by April 27^th. While in Tamil Nadu daily cases went from 474 on March 1^st to nearly 8500 on April 16^th. Kerala the cases went from 2,500 on April 2^nd to 10,000 on April 16^th. Let the figures do the talking. Yes, it is an volatile virus but what did India expect? It did not have to be this way, and the situation could have been very well evaded.

The heart breaking scenes outside the hospitals, the desperate and very often futile chase for oxygen, the SOS calls form the medical aids, the horrifying queues at the burial sites, the burning pyres that lit up the outskirts of the cities refusing to extinguish; all of these could have been contained. We are a nation with 1.3 billion people, a country with a conducive atmosphere for a virus of this kind to run wild. Social distancing was alien to us, with high rates of diseases and a struggling health infrastructure we are grappling with this unseen enemy. We were far from ready for a pandemic of this scale. India’s expenditure on healthcare as per the GDP is merely 3.6% (73,931 crores) for the past six years. Unfortunately, this is among the lowest in both developed and developing countries in the world. The US spends 16.9 percent of its GDP on healthcare. Germany 11.2 percent, Brazil 9.2 percent, South Africa 8.1 percent, Russia 5.3 percent and even Thailand is ahead with 3.79 percent (Source: World Bank data). When the experts set up by the center red flagged the oxygen shortage in the months to come, government remained morbid and stubborn trying to play down this hypothesis. The experts wanted the Government to boost up the production and cut down the supply to the industries, but no one gave heed to the advice. Unfortunately it was only on the 22^nd of April 2021 that the supply of oxygen to the industries was prohibited. Today in India oxygen shortage is proving to be deadly. 

The only saving grace has been India’s diplomatic record of providing the world with vaccines, but was it at the cost of our own lives? However, the world is returning the favor now while tens of countries have pledged critical aid to India; plain loads of oxygen concentrators, ventilators, testing kits, masks, anti-viral drugs and many more to the list. But are the people of India getting it? India is facing a logistic nightmare; we are struggling to transport the available oxygen with us to the desired destinations when hospitals across India are gasping for breath. Now at least for many the vaccination has become the last hope, but where are the vaccines? Ironically, India, the world’s largest vaccine producer is running short of vaccines. Is it because we shared the vaccines with the world? we provided 60 million doses to nearly 70 countries as a humanitarian gesture.

However, I prefer to narrow down the vaccine issue to few important problems like Government negligence, unclear and messy orders, corporate contracting, opaque contracting, differential pricing, poor record analysis and keeping, failure in foreseeing demand and above all the nasty politics in the forefront. Who should take blame for these problems? Health is a state subject in India, the primary responsibility for healthcare lies on the state governments, but disaster is a federal subject. The second wave being the biggest disaster we have ever faced neither states nor the center can escape the blame. The pity is, when the country is grappling with the surging of positive cases, the central government is all set to go ahead with the massive 20,000 crore Central- Vista project. A mockery on those gasping for breath in the corridors of several hospitals in Delhi and elsewhere in the country.  

I strongly believe the challenges mentioned below need to be addressed, India must get down to it on a war footing. Some of them are, proper estimation and communication of vaccine procurement, to set up an elite crisis management team: a task force that can be replicated at state and district levels (how long can we depend on social media for supplies?), breaking the transmission chain: where we need regional and state lockdowns and a complete ban on any religious or political gatherings, to put a check on black-marketing and hoarding of medicines and essentials: a stricter punishment for both of them to be levied soon, precaution: we need to mask up and keep it on, and put an end to the city-centric approach: very often we are blind to what is happening in the rural part of India. A large part of the suffering in small towns and villages is unchronicled. So, what we are left with is the lesson from our past, let us gird our loins to fight this unseen enemy. India has always been a country with a strong sense of community, and it reflects in today’s digital world. We have come together as a community on social media, individuals across political ideologies, religious beliefs, class barriers, and are rallying our network and resources to help those in need. And therefore, only the sense of community could reflect in our political system. 

Let the politicians and bureaucrats stop raising alarms about ‘narratives’ which are unfortunately targeted to them for their failures in instilling hope in the people, rather fix the lapses to put an end to this pandemic at the earliest. We will certainly rise like a phoenix from the ashes of doom and despair and bounce back to the much desired days of normalcy. Anymore, we will not hear the desperate cries of the victims of the pandemic resonating the four walls of isolated Covid centers, ‘I can’t breathe.’